Did COVID-19 prediction formulas miss something? New study suggests yes.
A new study published by an interdisciplinary team of researchers, including several from the University of Florida, suggests prediction models used by decision makers in attempting to control the spread of COVID-19 were incomplete.
Led by Robert D. Holt, Ph.D., Arthur R. Marshall, Jr. Chair of Ecological Studies at UF, the study sheds light on how the concept of metapopulations can influence the dynamics of everything from ecosystems to infectious disease spread.
Variability among communities connected by movement, the researchers suggest, were not studied closely enough during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic and therefore prediction models led to biased results. Given all the factors influencing the spread of the virus, the variability the researchers studied exacerbated the rate of spread.
